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    A stochastic evolutionary model for capturing human dynamics

    Fenner, Trevor and Levene, Mark and Loizou, George (2015) A stochastic evolutionary model for capturing human dynamics. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (JSTAT) 2015 , ISSN 1742-5468.

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    Abstract

    The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials and reliability analysis in engineering. We derive a general solution for the model in the form of a product, and then a continuous approximation to the solution via the renewal equation describing age-structured population dynamics. This enables us to model a wide range of survival distributions, according to the choice of the mortality distribution. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model from a longitudinal data set of popular search engine queries over 114 months, showing that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the solution for our model with power-law mortality.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): stochastic processes, critical phenomena of socio-economic systems
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Computer Science and Information Systems
    Research Centre: Birkbeck Knowledge Lab
    Depositing User: Professor Mark Levene
    Date Deposited: 24 Aug 2015 11:21
    Last Modified: 02 Dec 2016 13:23
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/12885

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