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A stochastic evolutionary model generating a mixture of exponential distributions

Fenner, Trevor and Levene, Mark and Loizou, George (2016) A stochastic evolutionary model generating a mixture of exponential distributions. The European Physical Journal B (EPJ B) 89 (2), ISSN 1434-6036.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2016-60926-8

Abstract

Recent interest in human dynamics has stimulated the investigation of the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts, such as mobile phone networks and social media. In this paper, we extend the stochastic urn-based model proposed in \cite{FENN15} so that it can generate mixture models, in particular, a mixture of exponential distributions. The model is designed to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials, reliability analysis in engineering, and more recently in the analysis of large data sets recording human dynamics. The mixture modelling approach, which is relatively simple and well understood, is very effective in capturing heterogeneity in data. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model, using a data set of popular search engine queries collected over a period of 114 months. We show that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the exponential mixture solution for our model.

Item Type: Article
Keyword(s) / Subject(s): human dynamics, stochastic model, survival analysis, mortality rate, mixture model, exponential mixture
School or Research Centre: Birkbeck Schools and Research Centres > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Computer Science and Information Systems
Depositing User: Mark Levene
Date Deposited: 17 Feb 2016 18:32
Last Modified: 17 Feb 2016 18:32
URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/14373

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