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    Incumbency advantage at municipal elections in Italy: a quasi-experimental approach

    De Benedetto, Marco Alberto (2014) Incumbency advantage at municipal elections in Italy: a quasi-experimental approach. Working Paper. Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.

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    Abstract

    We analyze the incumbency effect on a candidate’s electoral prospects using a large data set on Italian municipal elections held from 1993 to 2011. We apply a non-parametric Sharp Regression Discontinuity Design that compares candidates who barely win an election to those who barely lose, exploiting the fact that incumbency status changes discontinuously at the threshold of margin of victory of zero. We find that incumbents are more likely to win the competition compared to their challengers at the Italian municipal elections. The results are robust to different specifications and estimation strategies with excellent balance in observable characteristics. Also, the effect of interest seems to be larger in magnitude for municipalities located in the North of Italy compared to southern municipalities.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Additional Information: ISSN 1745-8587: BWPEF 1408
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Incumbency Status, Political Participation, Sharp RDD
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
    Depositing User: Administrator
    Date Deposited: 20 May 2016 13:34
    Last Modified: 20 May 2016 13:34
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/15287

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