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    Forecasting with social media: evidence from tweets on soccer matches

    Rossi, Giambattista (2017) Forecasting with social media: evidence from tweets on soccer matches. Economic Inquiry 56 (3), pp. 1748-1763. ISSN 0095-2583.

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    Abstract

    Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? In this paper we source 13.8m posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. We find that the Tweets of certain journalists, and the tone of all Tweets, contain information not revealed in betting prices. In particular, Tweets aid in the interpretation of news during matches.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the article, which has been published in final form at the link above. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Forecasting, social media, prediction markets, soccer
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Management
    Research Centre: Sport Business Centre
    Depositing User: Giambattista Rossi
    Date Deposited: 04 Aug 2017 08:42
    Last Modified: 05 Oct 2018 12:50
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/19238

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