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    Medium-run implications of changing demographic structures for the macro-economy

    Aksoy, Yunus and Basso, H. and Smith, Ron P. (2017) Medium-run implications of changing demographic structures for the macro-economy. National Institute Economic Review 241 (1), R58-R64. ISSN 00279501.

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    Abstract

    While there may be an important, but transitory, cyclical component in the poor performance of the past decade, we will emphasise the secular forces: the impact of demographic structure and innovation. We draw on the empirical and theoretical work reported in Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grasl (2015), ABSG, about the impact of changes in demographic structure on macroeconomic outcomes. This suggests that changes in age profile not only have significant implications for savings, investment, real interest rates and growth but also for innovation. The size of the effects seems plausible. For instance, if in 2015 the UK had the 1970 age structure, it would have added 0.68 percentage points to the long-run annual growth rate. The model suggests that the population ageing predicted for the next decades will tend to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
    Research Centre: Applied Macroeconomics, Birkbeck Centre for
    Depositing User: Yunus Aksoy
    Date Deposited: 07 Aug 2017 11:10
    Last Modified: 19 Nov 2018 13:11
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/19305

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