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    Do fiscal imbalances deteriorate sovereign debt ratings ?

    Afonso, A. and Gomes, Pedro (2011) Do fiscal imbalances deteriorate sovereign debt ratings ? Revue économique 62 (6), pp. 1123-1134. ISSN 0035-2764.

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    Abstract

    We use sovereign debt rating estimations from Afonso, Gomes and Rother (2009, 2011) for Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s, to assess to what extent the recent fiscal imbalances are being reflected on the sovereign debt notations. With macro and fiscal data up to 2010, and macro and fiscal projections, we obtain the expected rating for several OECD countries. The answer to the title question is yes, but in a diverse way for each country. Our average model predictions point to a heterogeneous behaviour of rating agencies across countries.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): credit ratings; sovereign debt; rating agencies.
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
    Research Centre: Applied Macroeconomics, Birkbeck Centre for
    Depositing User: Pedro Gomes
    Date Deposited: 12 Oct 2017 09:06
    Last Modified: 12 Oct 2017 09:06
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/20035

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