BIROn - Birkbeck Institutional Research Online

    How good is your evidence and how would you know?

    Hahn, Ulrike and Merdes, C. and von Sydow, M. (2018) How good is your evidence and how would you know? Topics in Cognitive Science 10 (4), pp. 660-678. ISSN 1756-8765.

    [img] Text
    23210.pdf - Author's Accepted Manuscript
    Restricted to Repository staff only until 27 October 2019.

    Download (6MB) | Request a copy

    Abstract

    This paper examines the basic question of how we can come to form accurate beliefs about the world when we do not fully know how good or bad our evidence is. Here we show, using simulations with otherwise optimal agents, the cost of misjudging the quality of our evidence, and compare different strategies for correctly estimating that quality, such as outcome, and expectation-based updating. We identify conditions under which misjudgment of evidence quality can nevertheless lead to accurate beliefs, as well as those conditions where no strategy will help. These results indicate both where people will nevertheless succeed and where they will fail when information quality is degraded.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the article, which has been published in final form at the link above. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Science > Psychological Sciences
    Research Centre: Cognition, Computation and Modelling, Centre for
    Depositing User: Ulrike Hahn
    Date Deposited: 24 Jul 2018 10:50
    Last Modified: 31 Jul 2019 15:05
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/23210

    Statistics

    Downloads
    Activity Overview
    1Download
    112Hits

    Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.

    Archive Staff Only (login required)

    Edit/View Item Edit/View Item