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Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models☆

Dueker, M.J. and Psaradakis, Zacharias and Sola, Martin and Spagnolo, F. (2011) Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models☆. Journal of Econometrics 160 (2), pp. 311-325. ISSN 0304-4076.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.09.011

Abstract

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex-ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific noise covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.

Item Type: Article
Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Nonlinear autoregressive model, smooth transition, stability, threshold
School or Research Centre: Birkbeck Schools and Research Centres > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
Depositing User: Administrator
Date Deposited: 28 Jan 2011 11:48
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2013 12:20
URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/3001

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