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An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes

Aksoy, Yunus and Melina, Giovanni (2012) An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes. Economics Letters 114 (1), pp. 64-68. ISSN 0165-1765.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.09.017

Abstract

In addition to containing stable information to explain inflation, state-local expenditures have also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US inflation than the Federal funds rate. Non-defense federal expenditures are useful in predicting real output variations and, starting from the early 1980s, present also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US real output than the Federal funds rate.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Economics Letters. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version will be subsequently published in Economics Letters, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.09.017
Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Information value, state-local expenditures, forecast error variance decomposition
School or Research Centre: Birkbeck Schools and Research Centres > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
Depositing User: Dr Yunus Aksoy
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2011 14:06
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2013 12:33
URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/4181

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