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American political affiliation, 2003–43: a cohort component projection

Goujon, A. and Kaufmann, Eric P. and Skirbekk, V. (2012) American political affiliation, 2003–43: a cohort component projection. Population Studies 66 (1), pp. 53-67. ISSN 0032-4728.

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The recent rise and stability in American party identification has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party bases. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces which will produce a natural Democratic advantage in the future while conservative writers highlight the importance of high Republican fertility in securing Republican growth. These concerns foreground the neglect of demography within political science. This paper addresses this omission by conducting the first ever cohort component projection of American partisan populations to 2043 based on survey and census data. A number of scenarios are modeled, but, on current trends, we predict that American partisanship will shift much less than the nation’s ethnic composition because the parties’ age structures are similar. Still, our projections find that the Democrats gain two to three percentage points from the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, though Republican fertility may redress the balance in the very long term.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Attached draft is titled "The Next American Voter: The Political Demography of American Partisanship"
Keyword(s) / Subject(s): political demography, partisanship, American politics, Democrats, Republicans, political attitudes, population projections, multistate projections, fertility, immigration, cohort effect
School or Research Centre: Birkbeck Schools and Research Centres > School of Social Sciences, History and Philosophy > Politics
Depositing User: Professor Eric Kaufmann
Date Deposited: 11 Jul 2012 14:06
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2013 12:33

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