Geman, Hélyette and Roncoroni, Andrea (2006) Understanding the fine structure of electricity prices. Journal of Business 79 (3), pp. 1225-1261. ISSN 0021-9398.
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This paper analyzes the special features of electricity spot prices derived from the physics of this commodity and from the economics of supply and demand in a market pool. Besides mean reversion, a property they share with other commodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in trajectories. We introduce a class of discontinuous processes exhibiting a "jump-reversion" component to properly represent these sharp upward moves shortly followed by drops of similar magnitude. Our approach allows to capture—for the first time to our knowledge—both the trajectorial and the statistical properties of electricity pool prices. The quality of the fitting is illustrated on a database of major U.S. power markets.
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|School or Research Centre:||Birkbeck Schools and Research Centres > School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics|
|Depositing User:||Sandra Plummer|
|Date Deposited:||04 Jun 2007|
|Last Modified:||17 Apr 2013 12:33|
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