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    Data acquisition dynamics and hypothesis generation

    Lange, Nicholas D. and Davelaar, Eddy J. and Thomas, R.P. (2013) Data acquisition dynamics and hypothesis generation. Cognitive Systems Research 24 , pp. 9-17. ISSN 1389-0417.

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    Abstract

    When formulating explanations for the events we witness in the world, temporal dynamics govern the hypotheses we generate. In our view, temporal dynamics influence beliefs over three stages: data acquisition, hypothesis generation, and hypothesis maintenance and updating. This paper presents experimental and computational evidence for the influence of temporal dynamics on hypothesis generation through dynamic working memory processes during data acquisition in a medical diagnosis task. We show that increasing the presentation rate of a sequence of symptoms leads to a primacy effect, which is predicted by the dynamic competition in working memory that dictates the weights allocated to individual data in the generation process. Individual differences observed in hypothesis generation are explained by differences in working memory capacity. Finally, in a simulation experiment we show that activation dynamics at data acquisition also accounts for results from a related task previously held to support capacity-unlimited diagnostic reasoning.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Hypothesis generation, temporal dynamics, working memory, abduction, diagnostic reasoning
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Science > Psychological Sciences
    Depositing User: Administrator
    Date Deposited: 22 Jan 2013 08:18
    Last Modified: 21 May 2013 07:43
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/5981

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