BIROn - Birkbeck Institutional Research Online

    Writing Russia's future: paradigms, drivers, and scenarios

    Bacon, Edwin (2012) Writing Russia's future: paradigms, drivers, and scenarios. Europe-Asia Studies 64 (7), pp. 1165-1189. ISSN 0966-8136.

    [img]
    Preview
    Text
    7382.pdf - Author's Accepted Manuscript

    Download (617kB) | Preview

    Abstract

    The development of prediction and forecasting in the social sciences over the past century and more is closely linked with developments in Russia. The Soviet collapse undermined confidence in predictive capabilities, and scenario planning emerged as the dominant future-oriented methodology in area studies, including the study of Russia. Scenarists anticipate multiple futures rather than predicting one. The approach is too rarely critiqued. Building on an account of Russia-related forecasting in the twentieth century, analysis of two decades of scenarios reveals uniform accounts which downplay the insights of experts and of social science theory alike.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Europe-Asia Studies, available online: http://wwww.tandfonline.com/10.1080/09668136.2012.698046
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Social Sciences
    Depositing User: Administrator
    Date Deposited: 07 Jun 2013 10:49
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 17:05
    URI: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/7382

    Statistics

    Activity Overview
    6 month trend
    697Downloads
    6 month trend
    462Hits

    Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.

    Archive Staff Only (login required)

    Edit/View Item Edit/View Item