The limits to stock return predictability
Robertson, D. and Wright, Stephen (2009) The limits to stock return predictability. Working Paper. Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK.
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Abstract
We examine predictive return regressions from a new angle. We ask what observable univariate properties of returns tell us about the “predictive space” that defines the true predictive model: the triplet ¡ λ, R2 x, ρ¢ , where λ is the predictor’s persistence, R2 x is the predictive R-squared, and ρ is the "Stambaugh Correlation" (between innovations in the predictive system). When returns are nearly white noise, and the variance ratio slopes downwards, the predictive space can be tightly constrained. Data on real annual US stock returns suggest limited scope for even the best possible predictive regression to out-predict the univariate representation, particularly over long horizons.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Keyword(s) / Subject(s): | predictive return regressions, variance ratio, fundamental and non-fundamental univariate representations |
| School: | Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School |
| Research Centres and Institutes: | Applied Macroeconomics, Birkbeck Centre for |
| Depositing User: | Sarah Hall |
| Date Deposited: | 13 May 2014 13:18 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Aug 2023 17:10 |
| URI: | https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/9727 |
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