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    Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)

    Beck, J. and Wolfers, S. and Roberts, Gerald P. (2018) Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1). Geoscientific Model Development , ISSN 1991-959X. (In Press)

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    Abstract

    Over the past twenty years, analyzing the abundance of the isotope chlorine-36 (36Cl) has emerged as a popular tool for geologic dating. In particular, it has been observed that 36Cl measurements along a fault plane can be used to study the timings of past ground displacements during earthquakes, which in turn can be used to improve existing seismic hazard assessment. This approach requires accurate simulations of 36Cl accumulation for a set of fault-scarp rock samples, which are 5 progressively exhumed during earthquakes, in order to infer displacement histories from 36Cl measurements. While the physical models underlying such simulations have continuously been improved, the inverse problem of recovering displacement histories from 36Cl measurements is still mostly solved on an ad-hoc basis. The current work resolves this situation by providing a MATLAB implementation of a fast, automatic, and flexible Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the inverse problem, and provides a validation of the 36Cl approach to inference of earthquakes from the demise of the Last Glacial 10 Maximum until present. To demonstrate its performance, we apply our algorithm to a synthetic case to verify identifiability, and to the Fiamignano and Frattura faults in the Italian Apennines in order to infer their earthquake displacement histories and to provide seismic hazard assessments. The results suggest high variability in slip rates for both faults, and large displacements on the Fiamignano fault at times when the Colosseum and other ancient buildings in Rome were damaged.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This is the accepted manuscript in the GMD journal. The pre-print from prior to acceptance in GMDD (discussion) is also on Biron at http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/22704/
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): 36Cl Cosmogenic dating Earthquake hazard Rome
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Science > Earth and Planetary Sciences
    Divisions > Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Science > Earth and Planetary Sciences
    Research Centres and Institutes: Earth and Planetary Sciences, Institute of
    Depositing User: Gerald Roberts
    Date Deposited: 15 Oct 2018 14:22
    Last Modified: 24 Jun 2020 17:55
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/24612

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