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    Prediction versus accommodation in economics

    Northcott, Robert (2019) Prediction versus accommodation in economics. Journal of Economic Methodology 26 (1), pp. 59-69. ISSN 1350-178X.

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    Abstract

    Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of orthodox economic theory. Second, a conditional predictivism: if we are not committed to orthodox economic theory, then (often) we should demand prediction rather than accommodation – against most current practice.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis, available online at the link above.
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Social Sciences, History and Philosophy > Philosophy
    Depositing User: Robert Northcott
    Date Deposited: 17 Dec 2018 15:20
    Last Modified: 31 Jul 2019 18:28
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/25534

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