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    Methodologies for measuring and modelling coastal habitat change: saline lagoons of the Suffolk coast, eastern England

    Spencer, T. and Brooks, Susan (2012) Methodologies for measuring and modelling coastal habitat change: saline lagoons of the Suffolk coast, eastern England. Hydrobiologia 693 (1), pp. 99-115. ISSN 0018-8158.

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    Abstract

    Thorough assessment of vulnerable coastal habitats, impacted by sea-level rise and anthropogenic pressures, requires both the accurate establishment of the evidence base for current status and scientifically-informed forward planning of expected future status. Coastal saline lagoons are transitional, ephemeral habitats of considerable conservation interest; under European legislation their status requires on-going maintenance of ‘favourable status’. Over decadal timescales, the seaward barriers that enclose saline lagoons migrate progressively landwards. Geo-referenced and digitised historic maps and aerial photographs are used to create a detailed trajectory of barrier migration and loss of lagoon area for three saline ‘broads’ on the rapidly retreating coastline of Suffolk, eastern England. The SCAPE shoreline response model is then employed to extend this trajectory, under a range of sea-level rise scenarios, to 2050 and 2095 and to predict saline lagoon ‘time to extinction’. Loss rates are likely to accelerate considerably after 2015 and a fundamental revision of UK saline lagoon creation targets is urgently required. The approach is generic and could be used to assess the evolutionary trajectories for other vulnerable coastal habitats, under a range of near-future environmental change scenarios.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Social Sciences, History and Philosophy > Department of Geography
    Depositing User: Sarah Hall
    Date Deposited: 12 Apr 2013 08:19
    Last Modified: 30 Jan 2017 10:32
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/6440

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