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    Modelling the interseismic deformation of a thrust system: seismogenic potential of the Southern Alps

    Barba, S. and Finocchio, D. and Sikdar, Elena and Burrato, P. (2013) Modelling the interseismic deformation of a thrust system: seismogenic potential of the Southern Alps. Terra Nova 25 (3), pp. 221-227. ISSN 0954-4879.

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    Abstract

    This article focuses on the Montello thrust system in the Eastern Southern Alps as a potential seismogenic source. This system is of particular interest because of its lack of historical seismicity. Nevertheless, the system is undergoing active deformation. We developed a finite-element model using visco-elasto-plastic rheology. The free parameters of the model (essentially, the locking status of the three thrusts included in the study), were constrained by matching the observed horizontal GPS and vertical levelling data. We show that the amount of interseismic fault locking, and thus the seismic potential, is not necessarily associated with the fastest-slipping faults. More specifically, the locked Bassano thrust has a greater seismic potential than the freely slipping Montello thrust. The findings suggest that faults with subtle evidence of Quaternary activity should be carefully considered when creating seismic hazard maps.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Science > Earth and Planetary Sciences
    Depositing User: Administrator
    Date Deposited: 06 Jun 2013 15:09
    Last Modified: 06 Jun 2013 15:09
    URI: http://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/7323

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