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    Writing Russia's future: paradigms, drivers, and scenarios

    Bacon, Edwin (2012) Writing Russia's future: paradigms, drivers, and scenarios. Europe-Asia Studies 64 (7), pp. 1165-1189. ISSN 0966-8136.

    7382.pdf - Author's Accepted Manuscript

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    The development of prediction and forecasting in the social sciences over the past century and more is closely linked with developments in Russia. The Soviet collapse undermined confidence in predictive capabilities, and scenario planning emerged as the dominant future-oriented methodology in area studies, including the study of Russia. Scenarists anticipate multiple futures rather than predicting one. The approach is too rarely critiqued. Building on an account of Russia-related forecasting in the twentieth century, analysis of two decades of scenarios reveals uniform accounts which downplay the insights of experts and of social science theory alike.


    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Europe-Asia Studies, available online:
    School: Birkbeck Schools and Departments > School of Social Sciences, History and Philosophy > Politics
    Depositing User: Administrator
    Date Deposited: 07 Jun 2013 10:49
    Last Modified: 30 Jul 2019 02:30


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