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US fiscal indicators, inflation and output

Aksoy, Yunus and Melina, Giovanni (2009) US fiscal indicators, inflation and output. Project Report. Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.

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Abstract

In this paper we explore the information content of a large set of fiscal indicators for US real output growth and inflation. We provide evidence that fluctuations in certain fiscal variables contain valuable information to predict fluctuations in output and prices. The distinction between federal and state-local fiscal indicators yields useful insights and helps define a new set of stylized facts for US macroeconomic conditions. First, we find that variations in state-local indirect taxes as well as state government surplus or deficit help predict output growth. Next, the federal counterparts of these indicators contain valuable information for inflation. Finally, state-local expenditures help predict US inflation. A set of formal and informal stability tests confirm that these relationships are stable. The fiscal indicators in questions are also among the ones that yield the best in-sample and out-of-sample performances.

Metadata

Item Type: Monograph (Project Report)
Additional Information: BWPEF 0918
Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Information value, state-local fi�nances, fi�scal variables, Granger causality
School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
Research Centres and Institutes: Applied Macroeconomics, Birkbeck Centre for
Depositing User: Administrator
Date Deposited: 09 Jul 2013 11:15
Last Modified: 17 Jul 2025 11:19
URI: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/7603

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