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    On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war

    Bove, V. and Elia, L. and Smith, Ron P. (2016) On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers 69 (3), pp. 550-568. ISSN 0030-7653.

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    We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts has a negative effect on the GDP level, it is very often insignificant. More importantly, however, both methods display a wide variety of individual separate effects, and in a large number of countries civil war has either no effect or a positive and significant impact on the prospect for economic growth.


    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication following peer review. The version of record is available online at the link above.
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Civil war, Economic growth, Panel analysis, Synthetic control method
    School: School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
    Research Centres and Institutes: Innovation Management Research, Birkbeck Centre for
    Depositing User: Ron Smith
    Date Deposited: 14 Nov 2016 15:52
    Last Modified: 12 Jun 2021 18:42


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