BIROn - Birkbeck Institutional Research Online

    The end of secularisation through demography? Projections of Spanish religiosity

    Kaufmann, Eric P. (2015) The end of secularisation through demography? Projections of Spanish religiosity. Journal of Contemporary Religion 30 (1), pp. 1-21. ISSN 1353-7903.

    17953.pdf - Author's Accepted Manuscript

    Download (1MB) | Preview


    This article presents the first projection, to our knowledge, of the intensity of religiosity in a population, which has a strong bearing on the critical question of the religious future of Europe. Spain has, in recent decades, simultaneously experienced rapid religious decline and marked demographic change through high immigration and declining fertility. To investigate future trends, we carry out population projections by religion and religiosity to the year 2050. We find that both fertility and immigration increase the share of the highly religious, as the more religious tend to have more children and immigrants tend to be more religious than non-immigrants. The non-religious population grows because people switch from religion to no-religion and because they are younger. Our findings suggest that in the longer term (2050), there may be growth in the no-religion population, a decline in the share of highly religious Christians, and moderate development of low religious Christians. The Muslim population would substantially increase, unless there is an end to migration and fertility differentials.


    Item Type: Article
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Social Sciences
    Research Centres and Institutes: Population, Environment and Resources Group (Closed)
    Depositing User: Eric Kaufmann
    Date Deposited: 18 Jan 2017 08:52
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 17:30


    Activity Overview
    6 month trend
    6 month trend

    Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.

    Archive Staff Only (login required)

    Edit/View Item Edit/View Item