BIROn - Birkbeck Institutional Research Online

    A process model of the understanding of uncertain conditionals

    Kleiter, G.D. and Fugard, Andi and Pfeifer, N. (2018) A process model of the understanding of uncertain conditionals. Thinking & Reasoning 24 (3), pp. 386-422. ISSN 1354-6783.

    [img]
    Preview
    Text
    21098.pdf - Published Version of Record
    Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

    Download (1MB) | Preview

    Abstract

    To build a process model of the understanding of conditionals we extract a common core of three semantics of if-then sentences: (a) the conditional event interpretation in the coherencebased probability logic, (b) the discourse processingtheory of Hans Kamp, and (c) the game-theoretical approach of Jaakko Hintikka. The empirical part reports three experiments in which each participant assessed the probability of 52 if-then sentencesin a truth table task. Each experiment included a second task: An n-back task relating the interpretation of conditionals to working memory, a Bayesian bookbag and poker chip task relating the interpretation of conditionals to probability updating, and a probabilistic modus ponens task relating the interpretation of conditionals to a classical inference task. Data analysis shows that the way in which the conditionals are interpreted correlates with each of the supplementary tasks. The results are discussed within the process model proposed in the introduction.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Article
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Uncertain reasoning, conditionals, conditional events, coherent probabilities, n-back task
    School: School of Social Sciences, History and Philosophy > Psychosocial Studies
    Depositing User: Administrator
    Date Deposited: 23 Feb 2018 10:10
    Last Modified: 13 Feb 2021 02:13
    URI: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/21098

    Statistics

    Downloads
    Activity Overview
    222Downloads
    134Hits

    Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.

    Archive Staff Only (login required)

    Edit/View Item Edit/View Item