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    A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice

    Peng, Bo and Song, H. and Crouch, G.I. (2014) A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice. Tourism Management 45 , pp. 181-193. ISSN 0261-5177.

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    Numerous studies on tourism forecasting have now been published over the past five decades. However,no consensus has been reached in terms of which types of forecasting models tend to be more accurate and in which circumstances. This study uses meta-analysis to examine the relationships between the accuracy of different forecasting models, and the data characteristics and study features. By reviewing 65 studies published during the period 1980-2011, the meta-regression analysis shows that the origins of tourists, destination, time period, modeling method, data frequency, number of variables and their measures and sample size all significantly influence the accuracy of forecasting models. This study is the first attempt to pair forecasting models with the data characteristics and the tourism forecasting context.The results provide suggestions for the choice of appropriate forecasting methods in different forecasting settings.


    Item Type: Article
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
    Research Centres and Institutes: Innovation Management Research, Birkbeck Centre for
    Depositing User: Bo Peng
    Date Deposited: 01 Feb 2019 09:08
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 17:48


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