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    The relationship between panel and synthetic control of the effect of civil war

    Bove, Vincenzo and Elia, L. and Smith, Ron P. (2014) The relationship between panel and synthetic control of the effect of civil war. Working Paper. Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK.

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    We examine the relationship between the case-study, synthetic control and large- N panel-data approaches using the costs of con ict as an example. In particular, we show that effects estimated from panel data models and effects estimated by the comparison of a treated case with a synthetic control are closely related. We then illustrate the similarities by studying the impact of civil war on the level and growth rate of GDP and discuss how to overcome some of the methodological challenges involved in quantifying the economic cost of war. We find that the incidence of internal con icts has an economically significant one-off negative effect on the GDP level, as well as a negative effect on the growth rate of the GPD.


    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Additional Information: BCAM 1406; ISSN 1745-8587
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Civil war, Counterfactual, Economic growth, Panel analysis, Synthetic control method
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
    Research Centres and Institutes: Applied Macroeconomics, Birkbeck Centre for, Innovation Management Research, Birkbeck Centre for
    Depositing User: Administrator
    Date Deposited: 21 Mar 2019 16:15
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 17:49


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