Hoon, H.T. and Katsimi, M. and Zoega, Gylfi (2018) Investment, current account, and the long swings of unemployment. Working Paper. Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK.
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Abstract
We estimate the relationship between investment and unemployment over the time period 1960-2015 in 20 OECD countries. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment – with no effect of investment on unemployment – we find that over our sample period covering more than five decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: when investment fell, unemployment increased. When the time period is broken down into two sub-periods to take account of the Great Recession, we find that the estimated coefficient of investment is slightly smaller when the period 2001-2015 is added to the 1960-2000 period. We also find a positive effect of the current account surplus on unemployment that very likely works through investment. A non-monetary model shows how an increase in policy uncertainty that sharply contracts investment and raises unemployment can lead to an increase in current account surplus.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | BWPEF 1810 |
| Keyword(s) / Subject(s): | Long swings of unemployment, investment, current account, Great Recession |
| School: | Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School |
| Depositing User: | Administrator |
| Date Deposited: | 25 Mar 2019 10:52 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Jul 2025 12:35 |
| URI: | https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/26846 |
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