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Big data and prediction: four case studies

Northcott, Robert (2019) Big data and prediction: four case studies. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A , ISSN 0039-3681.

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Abstract

Has the rise of data-intensive science, or ‘big data’, revolutionized our ability to predict? Does it imply a new priority for prediction over causal understanding, and a diminished role for theory and human experts? I examine four important cases where prediction is desirable: political elections, the weather, GDP, and the results of interventions suggested by economic experiments. These cases suggest caution. Although big data methods are indeed very useful sometimes, in this paper’s cases they improve predictions either limitedly or not at all, and their prospects of doing so in the future are limited too.

Metadata

Item Type: Article
Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Big data, prediction, case studies, explanation, elections, weather
School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Historical Studies
Depositing User: Robert Northcott
Date Deposited: 19 Sep 2019 15:38
Last Modified: 30 Jul 2025 14:07
URI: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/29013

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