Uncertainty, banking sector and financial frictions

Pirozhkova, Ekaterina (2017) Uncertainty, banking sector and financial frictions. Doctoral thesis, Birkbeck, University of London.

Abstract

Uncertainty is an important determinant of economic developments at both micro and macroeconomic levels. The main objective of this thesis is to examine the effects of economic and model uncertainty, paying close attention to financial factors as a key mechanism that propagates and amplifies business cycle movements. The first part of the thesis studies the impact of uncertainty on bank assets portfolios allocation. In chapter 1 I do this empirically by estimating a set of vector autoregression models. I show that a positive shock to uncertainty leads to reallocation of portfolios by commercial banks: they reduce issuance of business loans, while increasing the stock of safe assets - cash and Treasury and agency securities. I also demonstrate that when risk, uncertainty and balance sheet factors are controlled for, business loans decrease after monetary tightening, what allows to resolve the puzzle raised by den Haan et al. (2007) that business loans increase following monetary contraction. In chapter 2 I examine the relationship between economic uncertainty and asset portfolio allocation of banks in a theoretical model. The model incorporates a portfolio-optimizing banking sector facing non-diversifiable credit risk, where banks’ attitude to risk and expected profitability help to explain the endogenous movements of the risk premium. The premium charged by risk-averse banks provides self-insurance from profitability reduction brought about by heightened uncertainty about entrepreneurial productivity. Financial accelerator mechanism amplifies the portfolio reallocation effect of uncertainty shock. In the second part of the thesis I study how financial frictions affect robustness of monetary policy rules in New Keynesian models in case of model uncertainty. I demonstrate that when there is uncertainty about what type of financial frictions is at work, a policymaker exposes economy to risks of significant welfare losses by using a reference model without frictions as an economy representation.

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