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    Predicting road travel time

    Elliott, D. and Campos, L. and Smith, Ron P. (2011) Predicting road travel time. In: Infraday Conference, 2011, Berlin, Germany. (Unpublished)

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    This paper summarises the development of a model created for the England’s Highways Agency, which uses time series and cross sectional econometric techniques to predict average journey times on any given section of the England’s major road network. The purpose of the model is to simulate the impact of changes in road conditions on road delays across complex road network systems and over extended periods. The empirical analysis is based on separate time-series equations for each road section, where average travel time is regressed against several features describing road conditions on that section, including lagged journey time on that section and on adjacent sections. The equations for the separate sections are combined to form an interacting system, where shocks are transmitted between sections. To estimate the relevant parameters we used longitudinal data across more than 2,500 road sections in England over a two year period, with data recorded at 15 minute intervals. Hence the modelling process made use of 190m records.


    Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
    Depositing User: Sarah Hall
    Date Deposited: 20 Oct 2020 18:14
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 18:04


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