BIROn - Birkbeck Institutional Research Online

    What if the UK has joined the Euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a global VAR

    Pesaran, M.H. and Smith, L.V. and Smith, Ron P. (2005) What if the UK has joined the Euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a global VAR. Working Paper. Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK.

    Full text not available from this repository.

    Abstract

    This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same as those of the euro area. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realisations of variables of interest (e.g UK and euro area output and prices) subject to UK entry restrictions being fully met over a given period and the alternative realisations without the restrictions. The robustness of the results can be evaluated by also conditioning on variables deemed to be invariant to UK entry, such as oil or US equity prices. Economic interdependence means that such policy evaluation must take account of international linkages and common factors that drive fluctuations across economies. In this paper this is accomplished using the Global VAR recently developed by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith (2005). The paper briefly describes the GVAR which has been estimated for 25 countries and the euro area over the period 1979-2003. It reports probability estimates that output will be higher and prices lower in the UK and the euro area as a result of entry. It examines the sensitivity of these results to a variety of assumptions about when and how the UK entered and the observed global shocks and compares them with the effects of Swedish entry.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Additional Information: Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, number 0528
    School: School of Business, Economics & Informatics > Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
    Depositing User: Sarah Hall
    Date Deposited: 27 Oct 2020 16:02
    Last Modified: 06 Dec 2021 10:15
    URI: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/41080

    Statistics

    Downloads
    Activity Overview
    0Downloads
    50Hits

    Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.

    Archive Staff Only (login required)

    Edit/View Item Edit/View Item