BIROn - Birkbeck Institutional Research Online

    Markov-Switching Models with state-dependent time-varying transition probabilities

    Psaradakis, Zacharias and Sola, M. (2021) Markov-Switching Models with state-dependent time-varying transition probabilities. Econometrics and Statistics , ISSN 2452-3062.

    sdtvtp_es_final.pdf - Author's Accepted Manuscript
    Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

    Download (2MB) | Preview


    Markov-switching models with covariate-dependent transition functions that are subject to exogenous discrete stochastic changes are considered. These changes are associated with simultaneous stochastic changes in the covariance structure of the observable variables. Simulation experiments are carried out to assess the quality of large-sample approximations to the distributions of the maximum-likelihood estimator and of related statistics in such a model, and to examine the implications of misspecification due to unaccounted breaks in the transition mechanism. The practical use of the model is illustrated by analyzing the relationship between Argentinian sovereign bond spreads and output growth.


    Item Type: Article
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): Markov-switching models; Maximum likelihood; Monte Carlo experiments; Time-varying transition probabilities.
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
    Depositing User: Zacharias Psaradakis
    Date Deposited: 05 May 2021 09:10
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 18:09


    Activity Overview
    6 month trend
    6 month trend

    Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.

    Archive Staff Only (login required)

    Edit/View Item Edit/View Item