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    Bayesian Policy learning during COVID-19

    Mamatzakis, Emmanuel and Ongena, S. and Tsionas, M. (2021) Bayesian Policy learning during COVID-19. Working Paper. Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK. (Unpublished)

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    The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe primed a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Given these NPIs, whether the SIR parameters followed a Bayesian learning, a random walk pattern or other type of learning with evolving epidemiological data over time has implications for policy learning literature. Using a sample of UK country specific data and also for 168 countries and 51,083 country-date observations (January 1, 2020 to January 9, 2021), we estimate a SIR model with time-varying β and γ parameters in three context of a dynamic panel vector autoregressive model. Although learning does not seem to be taking place, and despite the absence of evidence of governments’ learning from the past, most policy measures are effective in reducing the values of the β and γ parameters. We also provide estimates of time-varying β and γ that can be used widely, and we develop novel testing procedures for testing for Bayesian learning.


    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
    Research Centres and Institutes: Accounting and Finance Research Centre
    Depositing User: Emmanuel Mamatzakis
    Date Deposited: 20 Jul 2021 05:48
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 18:11


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