BIROn - Birkbeck Institutional Research Online

    States of ‘Knowing’: uncertainty, ambiguity and risk in SIDS climate change impacts

    Foley, Aideen (2021) States of ‘Knowing’: uncertainty, ambiguity and risk in SIDS climate change impacts. In: Moncada, S. and Briguglio, L. and Bambrick, H. and Kelman, I. and Iorns, C. and Nurse, L. (eds.) Small Island Developing States: Vulnerability and Resilience Under Climate Change. Springer, pp. 13-34. ISBN 9783030827731.

    Full text not available from this repository.

    Abstract

    This chapter considers the questions of not only what we know about climate change impacts for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) but also how we know what we know, and how well we know what we know. The term ‘climate change risk’ implies strong knowledge about the possible outcomes and their probabilities, and thus a firm basis for conventional, computation-based decision-making strategies. However, what we ‘know’ about climate change impacts is often uncertain—where knowledge about possible outcomes is strong but knowledge of their likelihood is weak—or ambiguous, where knowledge of possible outcomes is limited but probabilities can be assigned for those that are known. Therefore, this chapter presents a critical analysis of quantitative (e.g. climate models, meteorological datasets) and qualitative (e.g. historical photography, narrative accounts) approaches used to study climate change impacts, focusing on their applicability in island contexts, where smallness, boundedness and isolation may present challenges which are more pronounced than at broader scales. It explores how the inherent limitations of various data and methods, alongside the nonlinearity and unpredictability of the climate system, give rise to uncertainty and/or ambiguity, and in light of this, discusses how climate data can reasonably inform decision-making relating to climate change impacts for SIDS.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Book Section
    School: School of Social Sciences, History and Philosophy > Department of Geography
    Depositing User: Aideen Foley
    Date Deposited: 16 Nov 2021 11:37
    Last Modified: 16 Nov 2021 11:37
    URI: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/46466

    Statistics

    Downloads
    Activity Overview
    0Downloads
    27Hits

    Additional statistics are available via IRStats2.

    Archive Staff Only (login required)

    Edit/View Item Edit/View Item