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    Identifying Dutch elm disease ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Man: an agent-based model approach

    Mitchell, B. and Barros, Joana and Wendel, D. (2010) Identifying Dutch elm disease ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Man: an agent-based model approach. In: GISRUK, 14-16 Apr 2010, University College London. (Unpublished)

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    The paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) of the spread of Dutch Elm Disease (DED), applied to the Isle of Man (IoM). The objective is to provide the Manx forestry authority with a tool to support their DED control campaign. IoM has an estimated population of 250,000 elm trees, and is unusual in that DED - transmitted by the bark beetle Scolytus - is still being successfully fought. A strict control program was established soon after the disease arrived in 1992. So far, just over 1,000 trees have been lost, compared with around 30 million on the British mainland. DED has been studied since 1918, and its epidemiology and lifecycle are by now well known. However, most DED studies are essentially aspatial. Models of DED have been developed, but focus on either the biological aspects of the disease - (Castro and Bolke (2004)) or on the spread of the disease (Swinton and Gilligan, 1996). The present study proposes a three-dimensional spatial analytical agent-based-model (ABM) approach to identirying danger spots - locations on the IoM where outbreaks might lead to the greatest mortality amongst the isles Dutch elm population.


    Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
    Additional Information: Conference proceedings available in the UCL repository, Discovery: This paper has also been presented at the conference, Geocomputation 2009. University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Social Sciences
    Depositing User: Sarah Hall
    Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2013 16:23
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 17:03


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