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    Information in the term structure of yield curve volatility

    Cieslak, A. and Povala, Pavol (2013) Information in the term structure of yield curve volatility. Working Paper. Social Science Electronic Publishing, Rochester, New York, USA.

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    We study volatility of US Treasuries. We propose a term structure model with stochastically correlated risks, which we estimate using realized volatilities and options. We identify time-varying volatilities and comovement of short-rate expectations and term premia. Volatility of short-rate expectations rises before recessions, predicts economic activity beyond the term spread, and covaries with measures of monetary policy uncertainty. Term premia become increasingly volatile in the aftermath of recessions and when economic policy uncertainty is high. Their correlation with expected short-rates fluctuates over time but is positive on average. Within an affine model, volatility has a small effect on the first moments of yields.


    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): interest rate risk, realized yield covariance matrix, affine models, macro uncertainty, liquidity
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
    Research Centres and Institutes: Applied Macroeconomics, Birkbeck Centre for
    Depositing User: Sarah Hall
    Date Deposited: 15 Apr 2014 11:09
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 17:10


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