Northcott, Robert (2015) Opinion polling and election predictions. Philosophy of Science 82 (5), pp. 1260-1271. ISSN 0031-8248.
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Abstract
Election prediction by means of opinion polling is a rare empirical success story for social science, but one not previously considered by philosophers. I examine the details of a prominent case, namely the 2012 US presidential election, and draw two lessons of more general interest: 1) Methodology over metaphysics. Traditional metaphysical criteria were not a useful guide to whether successful prediction would be possible; instead, the crucial thing was selecting an effective methodology. 2) Which methodology? Success required sophisticated use of case-specific evidence from opinion polling. The pursuit of explanations via general theory or causal mechanisms, by contrast, turned out to be precisely the wrong path – contrary to much recent philosophy of social science.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| School: | Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Historical Studies |
| Depositing User: | Robert Northcott |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Nov 2015 13:49 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Jul 2025 17:59 |
| URI: | https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/10719 |
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