Fenner, Trevor and Levene, Mark and Loizou, George (2015) A stochastic evolutionary model for capturing human dynamics. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (JSTAT) 2015 , ISSN 1742-5468.
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Abstract
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials and reliability analysis in engineering. We derive a general solution for the model in the form of a product, and then a continuous approximation to the solution via the renewal equation describing age-structured population dynamics. This enables us to model a wide range of survival distributions, according to the choice of the mortality distribution. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model from a longitudinal data set of popular search engine queries over 114 months, showing that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the solution for our model with power-law mortality.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Keyword(s) / Subject(s): | stochastic processes, critical phenomena of socio-economic systems |
| School: | Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Science > School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences |
| Research Centres and Institutes: | Birkbeck Knowledge Lab, Data Analytics, Birkbeck Institute for |
| Depositing User: | Professor Mark Levene |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Aug 2015 11:21 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Aug 2023 12:36 |
| URI: | https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/12885 |
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