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    A stochastic evolutionary model for capturing human dynamics

    Fenner, Trevor and Levene, Mark and Loizou, George (2015) A stochastic evolutionary model for capturing human dynamics. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (JSTAT) 2015 , ISSN 1742-5468.

    1502.07558v3.pdf - Author's Accepted Manuscript

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    The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials and reliability analysis in engineering. We derive a general solution for the model in the form of a product, and then a continuous approximation to the solution via the renewal equation describing age-structured population dynamics. This enables us to model a wide range of survival distributions, according to the choice of the mortality distribution. We provide empirical evidence for the validity of the model from a longitudinal data set of popular search engine queries over 114 months, showing that the survival function of these queries is closely matched by the solution for our model with power-law mortality.


    Item Type: Article
    Keyword(s) / Subject(s): stochastic processes, critical phenomena of socio-economic systems
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Science > School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences
    Research Centres and Institutes: Birkbeck Knowledge Lab, Data Analytics, Birkbeck Institute for
    Depositing User: Professor Mark Levene
    Date Deposited: 24 Aug 2015 11:21
    Last Modified: 09 Aug 2023 12:36


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