Brown, A. and Rambaccussing, D. and Reade, J. and Rossi, Giambattista (2018) Forecasting with social media: evidence from tweets on soccer matches. Economic Inquiry 56 (3), pp. 1748-1763. ISSN 0095-2583.
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Abstract
Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? In this paper we source 13.8m posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. We find that the Tweets of certain journalists, and the tone of all Tweets, contain information not revealed in betting prices. In particular, Tweets aid in the interpretation of news during matches.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | This is the peer reviewed version of the article, which has been published in final form at the link above. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving. |
| Keyword(s) / Subject(s): | Forecasting, social media, prediction markets, soccer |
| School: | Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School |
| Research Centres and Institutes: | Birkbeck Sport Business Centre |
| Depositing User: | Giambattista Rossi |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Aug 2017 08:42 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Aug 2023 17:34 |
| URI: | https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/19238 |
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