Fenner, Trevor and Levene, Mark and Loizou, George (2018) A stochastic differential equation approach to the analysis of the UK 2016 EU referendum polls. Journal of Physics Communications , ISSN 2399-6528.
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Abstract
Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose a generative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us to analyse the polls leading up to the UK 2016 EU referendum. After a preliminary analysis of the time series of poll results, we provide empirical evidence that the beta distribution, which is a natural choice when modelling proportions, fits the marginal distribution of this time series. We also provide evidence of the predictive power of the proposed model.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| School: | Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Science > School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences |
| Research Centres and Institutes: | Data Analytics, Birkbeck Institute for |
| Depositing User: | Administrator |
| Date Deposited: | 10 May 2018 06:03 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Apr 2025 14:23 |
| URI: | https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/22358 |
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