Okuday, T. and Tsurugaz, T. and Zanetti, F. (2019) Imperfect information, shock heterogeneity, and inflation dynamics. Working Paper. Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK.
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Abstract
We establish novel empirical regularities on firms' expectations about aggregate and idiosyncratic components of sectoral demand using industry-level survey data for the universe of Japanese rfims. Expectations of the idiosyncratic component of demand differ across sectors, and they positively co-move with expectations about the aggregate component of demand. To study the implications for in ation, we develop a model with firms that form expectations based on the inference of distinct shocks from a common signal. We show that the sensitivity of in ation to changes in demand decreases with the volatility of idiosyncratic component of demand that proxies the degree of shock heterogeneity. We apply principal component analysis on Japanese sectoral-level data to estimate the degree of shock heterogeneity, and we establish that the observed increase in shock heterogeneity plays a significant role for the reduced sensitivity of in ation to movements in real activity since the late 1990s.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | BCAM Working Paper Series 1906. ISSN 1745-8587 |
| Keyword(s) / Subject(s): | Imperfect information, Shock heterogeneity, In ation dynamics. |
| School: | Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School |
| Research Centres and Institutes: | Applied Macroeconomics, Birkbeck Centre for |
| Depositing User: | Administrator |
| Date Deposited: | 12 Sep 2019 13:50 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Jun 2025 07:58 |
| URI: | https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/28916 |
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