Prediction, history, and political science

Northcott, Robert (2023) Prediction, history, and political science. In: Kincaid, H. and Van Bouwel, J. (eds.) Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Political Science. Oxford Handbooks. Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780197519806. (In Press)

Abstract

Political science usually requires either prediction or contextual historical work to succeed. Because of the difficulty of prediction, the main focus should often be contextual historical work. Both of these methods favor narrow-scope explanations. I illustrate, via an example, the role that this still leaves for theory. I conclude by assessing the scope for political science to offer policy advice. All of this tells against several practices that are widespread in the discipline.

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