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    A Bayesian policy learning model of COVID-19 interventions and its impact on household debt repayments.

    Mamatzakis, Emmanuel (2022) A Bayesian policy learning model of COVID-19 interventions and its impact on household debt repayments. Working Paper. Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK. (Unpublished)

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    Abstract

    The paper examines the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the initial exponential growth of the infected population and final exponential decay of the infected population. We employ a Bayesian dynamic model to test whether there is learning, a random walk pattern or other type of learning with evolving epidemiological data over time across 168 countries and 51,083 country-date observations. Although learning might not take place, most policy measures appear to assert some effect. In an application we employ the main epidemiological parameters derived from the policy learning model to examine their impact on household debt repayments in UK within a vector autoregressive system of equations. Results show that higher transmission rate would increase household debt repayments, while the recovery rate would have negative impact on debt repayment.

    Metadata

    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    School: Birkbeck Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Business and Law > Birkbeck Business School
    Research Centres and Institutes: Accounting and Finance Research Centre
    Depositing User: Emmanuel Mamatzakis
    Date Deposited: 04 Oct 2022 05:13
    Last Modified: 02 Aug 2023 18:17
    URI: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/48450

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