What next? Nations in the technological race through the 2030

Archibugi, Daniele and Mariella, V. and Vezzani, A. (2025) What next? Nations in the technological race through the 2030. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 212 , ISSN 0040-1625.

Abstract

This paper investigates the technological trajectories of nations, examining how their current specialization may influence their future technological leadership. By analysing patent data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office, we identify which countries are at the forefront of fast-growing technologies. Nations specializing in these emerging technologies are likely to experience accelerated economic growth, while others may struggle to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, countries tend to stick to areas where they have expertise, making it difficult to shift quickly to new technological fields. However, our findings partly challenge this view. Using predictive models, we project patent trends to 2030, suggesting that countries which were not technologically well-positioned in recent decades may improve their competitiveness, particularly through strategic policy interventions. We also show that future fast-growing technologies may differ significantly from the past.

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